We investigate a forecasting framework based on a simple discrete-time dynamic model with coefficients varying in time. The parameters of the model are recovered within a deep learning framework, which makes it possible to retain a transparent parametric structure while simultaneously accounting for complex and nonstationary patterns in the observed phenomenon. Our analysis covers two specifications of the noise process. Besides the standard Gaussian setting, we also consider Laplace-distributed noise, which can offer a more adequate description in the presence of heavier tails and sharper local fluctuations. For both cases, we formulate the predictive scheme of the model and analyze the associated uncertainty quantification, including the construction of prediction intervals. The results illustrate that a relatively simple model, when combined with time-dependent parameter estimation, can serve as a mathematically tractable and practically flexible tool for forecasting complex dynamics under different noise assumptions. The general model is stated for TVAR($p$), while the prediction-interval formulas and the numerical experiments are developed for the TVAR(1) case.

Sparse variable selection improves interpretability and generalization in highdimensional learning by selecting a small subset of informative features. Recent advances in Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) have enabled solving large-scale nonprivate sparse regression--known as Best Subset Selection (BSS)--with millions of variables in minutes. However, extending these algorithmic advances to the setting of Differential Privacy (DP) has remained largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce two new pure differentially private estimators for sparse variable selection, levering modern MIP techniques. Our framework is general and applies broadly to problems like sparse regression or classification, and we provide theoretical support recovery guarantees in the case of BSS. Inspired by the exponential mechanism, we develop structured sampling procedures that efficiently explore the non-convex objective landscape, avoiding the exhaustive combinatorial search in the exponential mechanism. We complement our theoretical findings with extensive numerical experiments, using both least squares and hinge loss for our objective function, and demonstrate that our methods achieve state-of-the-art empirical support recovery, outperforming competing algorithms in settings with up to p = 104.

Transformers have emerged as a powerful neural network architecture capable of tackling a wide range of learning tasks. In this work, we provide a theoretical analysis of their ability to automatically extract structure from data in an unsupervised setting. In particular, we demonstrate their suitability for clustering when the input data is generated from a Gaussian mixture model. To this end, we study a simplified two-head attention layer and define a population risk whose minimization with unlabeled data drives the head parameters to align with the true mixture centroids. This phenomenon highlights the ability of attention-based layers to capture underlying distributional structure. We further examine an attention layer with key, query, and value matrices fixed to the identity, and show that, even without any trainable parameters, it can perform in-context quantization, revealing the surprising capacity of transformer-based methods to adapt dynamically to input-specific distributions.

We propose a Koopman-enhanced physics-informed neural network (K--PINN) framework for parameter inference and forecasting in nonlinear epidemic models. This method combines Koopman operator theory and physics-informed learning. It maps epidemic states into a latent observable space where the dynamics evolve approximately linearly while satisfying the governing epidemic equations through automatic differentiation. This integration improves interpretability, parameter identifiability, and long-term predictive stability. We apply the proposed framework to a normalized SEIRSD epidemic model and evaluate it using synthetic monkeypox (Mpox) data and real-world datasets from Germany, Morocco, and Sweden for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Synthetic trajectories are generated using a structure-preserving, nonstandard finite difference scheme to ensure reliable training data. Numerical results demonstrate that K--PINN achieves more accurate parameter estimation, trajectory reconstruction, and long-term forecasting than classical PINNs and Koopman-EDMD approaches. These results suggest that K--PINN is an effective machine learning framework for epidemic modeling that can be extended to more complex systems.

In this manuscript, we analyze a solvable model of flow or diffusion-based generative model. We consider the problem of learning a model parametrized by a two-layer auto-encoder, trained with online stochastic gradient descent, on a highdimensional target density with an underlying low-dimensional manifold structure. We derive a tight asymptotic characterization of low-dimensional projections of the distribution of samples generated by the learned model, ascertaining in particular its dependence on the number of training samples. Building on this analysis, we discuss how mode collapse can arise, and lead to model collapse when the generative model is re-trained on generated synthetic data.

In this Appendix, we will derive the fixed-point equations for the order parameters presented in the main text, following and generalising the analysis in Ref. [ Saddle-point equations The saddle-point equations are derived straightforwardly from the obtained free energy functionally extremising with respect to all parameters. The zero-regularisation limit of the logistic loss can help us study the separability transition. N 5 + \ 1 p 0, 1 d 5. (66) As a result, given that \ 2( 0, 1 ], the smaller value for which E is finite is U This result has been generalised immediately afterwards by Pesce et al. Ref. [ 59 ] for the Gaussian case, we can obtain the following fixed-point equations, 8 > > > > > >< > > > > > >: E = Mean universality Following Ref. [ In our case, this condition is simpler than in Ref. [ We see that mean-independence in this setting is indeed verified. Numerical experiments Numerical experiments regarding the quadratic loss with ridge regularisation were performed by computing the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse solution.

Unsupervised learning (UL)-based solvers for combinatorial optimization (CO) train a neural network that generates a soft solution by directly optimizing the CO objective using a continuous relaxation strategy. These solvers offer several advantages over traditional methods and other learning-based methods, particularly for large-scale CO problems.